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Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32016/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This was determined to likely be separate from CME: 2024-07-16T23:12Z. There were multiple source candidates for this CME, including the M1.9 flare and eruption from AR 3744 or an eruption with moving/opening field lines from AR 3751 around 2024-07-16T20:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193. No clear CME arrival signature in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-20T08:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
CME #1 - CME 2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001
CME Event ID: B0947
Start Date/Time: 2024-07-17 04:12Z 
Latitude: 1°
Longitude: -16°
Half Angle: 35°
Radial Velocity: 632 km/s

CME #2 - CME 2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001
CME Event ID: B0948
Start Date/Time: 2024-07-17 07:22Z 
Latitude: -12°
Longitude: 2°
Half Angle: 44°
Radial Velocity: 395 km/s


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Jul 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity
... Region 3753 (N11W50, Dai/beta) produced a M1.6/1N flare at 16/2124
UTC, and Region 3744 (N16W30, Cao/beta) responded with a M1.9 flare at
16/2206 UTC. Type II and IV radio sweeps were reported by USAF
observatories in association with the M1.9 flare event. However, both of
these flares appear have to produced faint shock as observed by SOHO
LASCO C2 imagery first seen just before 16/2312 UTC. Modeling of these
events suggests mostly shock arrival first by midday on 20 Jul followed
by a second shock arrival early on the 21st.
Lead Time: 73.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-07-17T06:25Z
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